Poker Variance Calculator: Understand Your Downswings and Upswings

Variance is the reason poker players go broke even when they're winning players. Understanding variance with a calculator can save your bankroll and your sanity.

What is Poker Variance?

Poker variance is the statistical measure of how much your results will deviate from your expected win rate over any given sample of hands.

Even if you're a 5bb/100 winner, you can:

• Lose 10,000 hands in a row
• Have 20+ buy-in downswings
• Go months without winning

This is normal variance, not bad play.

Why You Need a Variance Calculator

1. Know if You're Running Bad or Playing Bad

Variance calculator shows:

• Expected range of results
• Probability of your downswing
• Whether results are statistically normal

If your results are within 2 standard deviations, you're probably just running bad.

2. Set Realistic Expectations

New players think:

• "I'm a winning player, I should win every session"
• "I haven't won in 3 days, something's wrong"

Variance calculator shows:

• Downswings are normal
• Even 10bb/100 winners have losing months
• Variance is huge in poker

3. Proper Bankroll Management

Variance calculator tells you:

• How many buy-ins you need
• Probability of X buy-in downswing
• When to move down in stakes

How to Calculate Poker Variance

Standard Deviation Formula

SD = √(Variance in bb)

Typical standard deviations:

• Cash games: 80-100 bb/100 hands
• 6-max: 100-120 bb/100 hands
• Heads up: 130-150 bb/100 hands
• Tournaments: Extremely high (300+ bb)

Win Rate Confidence Interval

CI = Win Rate ± (SD / √(Hands/100)) × Z-score

Where:

• Win Rate = Your bb/100
• SD = Standard deviation
• Hands = Sample size
• Z-score = 1.96 for 95% confidence

Example Calculation

You've played 10,000 hands:

• Win rate: 5bb/100
• Standard deviation: 90bb/100

CI = 5 ± (90 / √100) × 1.96 CI = 5 ± (90 / 10) × 1.96 CI = 5 ± 17.64 CI = -12.64 to 22.64 bb/100

This means with 95% confidence, your TRUE win rate is somewhere between -12.64 and 22.64 bb/100. You need more hands!

Using Poker Variance Calculators

Popular Calculators

1. Primedope Variance Calculator

   • Free online tool
   • Shows downswing/upswing probability
   • Cash game focused

2. VIP-Grinders Variance Simulator

   • Simulates variance
   • Shows visual graphs
   • Updated for 2025

3. PokerDope Variance Calculator

   • Detailed statistics
   • Confidence intervals
   • Expected ranges

What to Input

Required information:

• Win rate (bb/100)
• Standard deviation (80-100 for most players)
• Number of hands played
• Desired confidence level (usually 95%)

Optional:

• Current bankroll
• Number of tables
• Session length

Typical Poker Variance by Game Type

Cash Games (9-max)

Win Rate: 2-10 bb/100 (good players) Standard Deviation: 80-90 bb/100

Expected variance:

• 10k hands: ±18bb/100 swing
• 25k hands: ±11bb/100 swing
• 50k hands: ±8bb/100 swing
• 100k hands: ±5.6bb/100 swing

Cash Games (6-max)

Win Rate: 3-12 bb/100 (good players) Standard Deviation: 100-120 bb/100

Expected variance:

• 10k hands: ±20-24bb/100 swing
• 25k hands: ±12-15bb/100 swing
• 50k hands: ±10bb/100 swing
• 100k hands: ±7bb/100 swing

Heads Up Cash Games

Win Rate: 5-20 bb/100 (good players) Standard Deviation: 130-150 bb/100

Expected variance:

• 10k hands: ±26-30bb/100 swing
• 25k hands: ±16-19bb/100 swing
• 50k hands: ±13bb/100 swing

Tournaments

Tournaments have EXTREME variance:

• Can play 100+ MTTs without cashing
• Can play 500+ without final table
• Even best players have 50+ tournament losing streaks

Bankroll requirements: 100+ buy-ins minimum

Understanding Downswings

What is a Normal Downswing?

For a 5bb/100 winner with 90bb SD:

Over 10,000 hands, you could:

• Win 23bb/100 (running hot)
• Win 5bb/100 (expected)
• Lose 13bb/100 (running bad, but normal)

Maximum Expected Downswing

Formula: Max Downswing = 3 × SD / √(100/hands)

For 90bb SD over 10k hands: Max Downswing = 3 × 90 / √100 = 27bb/100

So losing 27bb/100 over 10k hands is within 3 standard deviations (still possible).

Buy-in Downswings

Typical downswings for cash game players:

• 5 buy-ins: Very common (monthly)
• 10 buy-ins: Common (every few months)
• 20 buy-ins: Rare but normal (yearly)
• 30+ buy-ins: Extremely rare but possible

This is why you need 30-50 buy-ins.

How Much Variance is Normal?

Sample Size Matters

10,000 hands: Variance is HUGE

• Win rate confidence interval: ±18bb/100
• Your true win rate could be anywhere in 36bb range

25,000 hands: Still significant variance

• Win rate confidence interval: ±11bb/100
• Starting to get clearer picture

50,000 hands: Moderate variance

• Win rate confidence interval: ±8bb/100
• Reasonable estimate of true win rate

100,000 hands: Lower variance

• Win rate confidence interval: ±5.6bb/100
• Good confidence in your win rate

250,000+ hands: Reliable

• Win rate confidence interval: ±3.5bb/100
• Very confident in your true win rate

The 100k Hand Rule

You need at least 100,000 hands to have reasonable confidence in your win rate.

Before 100k hands:

• Don't get cocky when winning
• Don't panic when losing
• Focus on playing well

Reducing Variance

1. Play Tighter

Fewer marginal spots = Lower variance

• Fold more speculative hands
• 3-bet less with weak holdings
• Avoid high-variance plays

But this also lowers win rate.

2. Play Lower Stakes

At lower stakes:

• Easier decisions = Lower variance
• Opponents make bigger mistakes
• More straightforward play

3. Play Fewer Tables

Multitabling increases variance:

• 1 table: Lower variance
• 4 tables: Moderate variance
• 8+ tables: High variance

Quality > Quantity

4. Avoid Tournaments

Tournaments have extreme variance:

• Switch to cash games
• Play SNGs instead of MTTs
• Focus on lower variance formats

When to Move Down

Bankroll Rules

Move down when you lose:

• 25% of bankroll (conservative)
• 30% of bankroll (standard)
• 40% of bankroll (aggressive)

Psychology Matters

Move down if:

• You're tilting
• Confidence is shot
• Playing scared money
• Not having fun

No shame in moving down. Even pros do it.

Using Variance to Your Advantage

1. Don't Results-Orient

Judge decisions by process, not results:

• Losing with AA < KK all-in preflop is fine
• Winning by sucking out with 72o is bad

Variance calculator shows this is normal.

2. Stay Disciplined During Upswings

Running hot ≠ Playing great

• Don't move up too fast
• Don't get overconfident
• Stick to bankroll management

3. Stay Patient During Downswings

Running bad ≠ Playing bad

• Check if results are within normal variance
• Review hands for actual mistakes
• Take breaks if tilting
• Don't change winning strategy

Tools and Resources

Use these variance calculators:

1. Primedope Poker Variance Calculator
2. VIP-Grinders Variance Simulator 2025
3. PokerDope Calculator

Track your results with:

• Poker tracking software (Hold'em Manager, PokerTracker)
• ManageBankroll for manual tracking
• Spreadsheets

Conclusion

Variance is the biggest challenge in poker. Key takeaways:

1. 100k hands minimum to know your true win rate
2. 30-50 buy-ins to survive variance
3. 20+ buy-in downswings are normal
4. Use variance calculator to set expectations
5. Don't judge play by results - focus on decisions

Understanding variance:

• Prevents tilt
• Improves bankroll management
• Keeps you playing your A-game
• Helps you survive downswings

Run the numbers, trust the math, and focus on making good decisions. Variance will even out over time.