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Poker Variance Calculator: Understand Your Downswings and Upswings | Manage Bankroll Blog
• • Poker Variance Calculator: Understand Your Downswings and Upswings Use this poker variance calculator to understand your expected downswings and upswings. Learn how to distinguish between running bad and playing bad.
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Poker Variance Calculator: Understand Your Downswings and Upswings
Variance is the reason poker players go broke even when they're winning players. Understanding variance with a calculator can save your bankroll and your sanity.
What is Poker Variance?
Poker variance is the statistical measure of how much your results will deviate from your expected win rate over any given sample of hands.
Even if you're a 5bb/100 winner, you can:
Lose 10,000 hands in a row
Have 20+ buy-in downswings
Go months without winning
This is normal variance, not bad play.
Why You Need a Variance Calculator
1. Know if You're Running Bad or Playing Bad
Variance calculator shows:
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Expected range of results
Probability of your downswing
Whether results are statistically normal
If your results are within 2 standard deviations, you're probably just running bad.
2. Set Realistic Expectations
"I'm a winning player, I should win every session"
"I haven't won in 3 days, something's wrong"
Variance calculator shows:
Downswings are normal
Even 10bb/100 winners have losing months
Variance is huge in poker
3. Proper Bankroll Management Variance calculator tells you:
How many buy-ins you need
Probability of X buy-in downswing
When to move down in stakes
How to Calculate Poker Variance
Standard Deviation Formula Typical standard deviations:
Cash games : 80-100 bb/100 hands6-max : 100-120 bb/100 handsHeads up : 130-150 bb/100 handsTournaments : Extremely high (300+ bb)
Win Rate Confidence Interval CI = Win Rate ± (SD / √(Hands/100)) × Z-score
Win Rate = Your bb/100
SD = Standard deviation
Hands = Sample size
Z-score = 1.96 for 95% confidence
Example Calculation You've played 10,000 hands:
Win rate: 5bb/100
Standard deviation: 90bb/100
CI = 5 ± (90 / √100) × 1.96
CI = 5 ± (90 / 10) × 1.96
CI = 5 ± 17.64
CI = -12.64 to 22.64 bb/100
This means with 95% confidence, your TRUE win rate is somewhere between -12.64 and 22.64 bb/100. You need more hands!
Using Poker Variance Calculators
Popular Calculators
Primedope Variance Calculator
Free online tool
Shows downswing/upswing probability
Cash game focused
VIP-Grinders Variance Simulator
Simulates variance
Shows visual graphs
Updated for 2025
PokerDope Variance Calculator
Detailed statistics
Confidence intervals
Expected ranges
What to Input
Win rate (bb/100)
Standard deviation (80-100 for most players)
Number of hands played
Desired confidence level (usually 95%)
Current bankroll
Number of tables
Session length
Typical Poker Variance by Game Type
Cash Games (9-max) Win Rate : 2-10 bb/100 (good players)
Standard Deviation : 80-90 bb/100
10k hands: ±18bb/100 swing
25k hands: ±11bb/100 swing
50k hands: ±8bb/100 swing
100k hands: ±5.6bb/100 swing
Cash Games (6-max) Win Rate : 3-12 bb/100 (good players)
Standard Deviation : 100-120 bb/100
10k hands: ±20-24bb/100 swing
25k hands: ±12-15bb/100 swing
50k hands: ±10bb/100 swing
100k hands: ±7bb/100 swing
Heads Up Cash Games Win Rate : 5-20 bb/100 (good players)
Standard Deviation : 130-150 bb/100
10k hands: ±26-30bb/100 swing
25k hands: ±16-19bb/100 swing
50k hands: ±13bb/100 swing
Tournaments Tournaments have EXTREME variance:
Can play 100+ MTTs without cashing
Can play 500+ without final table
Even best players have 50+ tournament losing streaks
Bankroll requirements : 100+ buy-ins minimum
Understanding Downswings
What is a Normal Downswing? For a 5bb/100 winner with 90bb SD:
Over 10,000 hands , you could:
Win 23bb/100 (running hot)
Win 5bb/100 (expected)
Lose 13bb/100 (running bad, but normal)
Maximum Expected Downswing Formula : Max Downswing = 3 × SD / √(100/hands)
For 90bb SD over 10k hands:
Max Downswing = 3 × 90 / √100 = 27bb/100
So losing 27bb/100 over 10k hands is within 3 standard deviations (still possible).
Buy-in Downswings Typical downswings for cash game players:
5 buy-ins : Very common (monthly)10 buy-ins : Common (every few months)20 buy-ins : Rare but normal (yearly)30+ buy-ins : Extremely rare but possible This is why you need 30-50 buy-ins.
How Much Variance is Normal?
Sample Size Matters 10,000 hands : Variance is HUGE
Win rate confidence interval: ±18bb/100
Your true win rate could be anywhere in 36bb range
25,000 hands : Still significant variance
Win rate confidence interval: ±11bb/100
Starting to get clearer picture
50,000 hands : Moderate variance
Win rate confidence interval: ±8bb/100
Reasonable estimate of true win rate
100,000 hands : Lower variance
Win rate confidence interval: ±5.6bb/100
Good confidence in your win rate
Win rate confidence interval: ±3.5bb/100
Very confident in your true win rate
The 100k Hand Rule You need at least 100,000 hands to have reasonable confidence in your win rate.
Don't get cocky when winning
Don't panic when losing
Focus on playing well
Reducing Variance
1. Play Tighter Fewer marginal spots = Lower variance
Fold more speculative hands
3-bet less with weak holdings
Avoid high-variance plays
But this also lowers win rate.
2. Play Lower Stakes
Easier decisions = Lower variance
Opponents make bigger mistakes
More straightforward play
3. Play Fewer Tables Multitabling increases variance:
1 table: Lower variance
4 tables: Moderate variance
8+ tables: High variance
4. Avoid Tournaments Tournaments have extreme variance:
Switch to cash games
Play SNGs instead of MTTs
Focus on lower variance formats
When to Move Down
Bankroll Rules
25% of bankroll (conservative)30% of bankroll (standard)40% of bankroll (aggressive)
Psychology Matters
You're tilting
Confidence is shot
Playing scared money
Not having fun
No shame in moving down. Even pros do it.
Using Variance to Your Advantage
1. Don't Results-Orient Judge decisions by process, not results:
Losing with AA < KK all-in preflop is fine
Winning by sucking out with 72o is bad
Variance calculator shows this is normal.
2. Stay Disciplined During Upswings Running hot ≠ Playing great
Don't move up too fast
Don't get overconfident
Stick to bankroll management
3. Stay Patient During Downswings Running bad ≠ Playing bad
Check if results are within normal variance
Review hands for actual mistakes
Take breaks if tilting
Don't change winning strategy
Tools and Resources Use these variance calculators:
Poker tracking software (Hold'em Manager, PokerTracker)
ManageBankroll for manual tracking
Spreadsheets
Conclusion Variance is the biggest challenge in poker. Key takeaways:
100k hands minimum to know your true win rate30-50 buy-ins to survive variance20+ buy-in downswings are normalUse variance calculator to set expectationsDon't judge play by results - focus on decisions
Prevents tilt
Improves bankroll management
Keeps you playing your A-game
Helps you survive downswings
Run the numbers, trust the math, and focus on making good decisions. Variance will even out over time.